Donald Trump (3)

Donald Trump winning the US presidential election is as risky as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy", the Economist Intelligence Unit has said.

The research firm said the Republican front-runner could cause shockwaves in the global economy and prompt political and security risk in the US.

On a scale of 1-25, the EIU gave Mr Trump and the threat of jihadi terrorism to the global economy a score of 12 - the joint fourth biggest risk facing the world.

"Thus far Mr Trump has given very few details of his policies - and these tend to be prone to constant revision," the EIU said.

However, the EIU said it does not expect Trump to defeat Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, who is described as "his most likely Democratic contender".

"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East and ban on all Muslim travel to the US would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond," the EIU added.


Mr Trump was even seen as a bigger threat that the UK voting to leave the European Union on 23 June; although a Brexit was seen as the joint fifth biggest risk.

Given a score of 8, the EIU said: "If Britain did leave the EU it would have negative ramifications for the UK - still the fifth biggest economy in the world, and whose exporters would struggle in the face of regulatory and tariff uncertainty, and whose position as a leading global financial services hub would be imperilled."

It added: "However, it would also harm the EU itself, given that the UK is one of the few relatively fast-growing economies in Europe, and has also been a leading proponent of trade and services liberalisation. Finally, the shock of a "Brexit" could also exacerbate the ongoing global currency instability, notably in the West."


The biggest risk facing the world, however, is China 'experiencing a hard landing'. With a score of 20, the EIU pointed to the deterioration of the country's services and manufacturing sectors and its already sky-high debt pile.

It said: "If China's economy slows by more than we currently expect, it will further feed the ongoing global commodity price slump (especially in oil and, in particular, metals), with a hugely detrimental impact on those Latin American, Middle Eastern and Sub-Saharan African states that had benefited from the earlier Chinese-driven boom in commodity prices.

"In addition, given the growing dependence of Western manufacturers and retailers on demand in China and other emerging markets, a prolonged deceleration in growth there would have a severe knock-on effect across the EU and the US - far more than would have been the case in earlier decades."