by Orbis Exchange
Market Report 24/04/23 - 28/04/23
- Migration bill Amendments for the UK
- GDP figures out for the Eurozone
- Durable Goods Order released for the US
In terms of data released last week it was seen as a negative week for the Pound, we saw a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.1% and Retail Sales had dropped from 1.1% to -0.9%. The result that gave the GBP a push against both the Euro and Dollar was the Inflation data, although levels did drop to 10.1% from 10.4%, this is not as big as the BoE would’ve hoped, this means they are inclined to release a more hawkish interest rate decision at the next meeting. Last week we also saw the Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab had resigned, this comes as 2 allegations of bullying were upheld against him, he was replaced by Oliver Dowden, a long-term ally of PM Rishi Sunak. This week we have the amendment of the Migration Bill, this is to toughen up the bill and prevent British and European judges from preventing deportation, depending what other amendments are made this could have an either positive or negative effect on the Pound as this could effect future Government stability. Brexit measures previously weakened the Pound and any agreement that could affect future trade could devalue the Pound. Rishi Sunak is also set to attempt to woo corporate Britain with new business forum which could see an increase in foreign investment if successful.
Last week we had the S&P Global Composite PMI for the Eurozone released, this saw a positive result that topped February’s result, this shows growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors. There was no change on the inflation data that was released, this leads into what the ECB will do with their upcoming Monetary policy and if they’ll continue to hike interest rates as much as they have been. This week we have GDP figures being released in both the Eurozone and Germany, as an individual. This will show us if the biggest economy within the Eurozone is following the same direction of growth as the rest. We also have the European Commission’s Consumer Confidence Index, this shows level of consumer confidence in economic activity, if we see a rise in the result then this stimulates economic expansion which could have a positive effect on the Euro, although if we do see a drop in the result, which drives to economic downturn, which could be seen as bearish for the EUR.
The S&P Global Composite PMI result last week came back as positive for the Dollar, this shows growth in the US. This lead the Dollar to strengthen against both the Pound and Euro at the back end of last week. As well last week we saw India and China snap up Russian Oil above the “Price Cap”, this price cap was set at $60 per barrel to lower the funds Russia have for their war in Ukraine, if this helps Russia develop the war against Ukraine then this would affect the Dollar. This week we have data for Durable Goods Orders being released, if we see a good result beating the previous, then this could be seen as USD Bullish, whereas if we see a drop in these figures then this could have a negative effect on the Dollar. We also have GDP figures being releases this week. A drop of 0.6% is expected from this result, if this is the case then this could be a bearish result for the USD, but a rise could positively affect Dollar quotes this week.
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