by Orbis Exchange
Market Report 01/05/23 - 05/05/23
Key Points
- CIPS Composite PMI out in the UK
- ECB Monetary Policy Decision out this week
- Fed Interest Rate Decision out this week
GBP
Strike action also continued last week as we saw teachers walk out and will again this week, further train strikes targeting the Eurostar service are planned as well, if this is continued and not resolved by the Government, it could lead to further volatility for the Pound in the upcoming weeks. This week we have the Composite PMI being released for the month of April, further growth in the manufacturing and services industry could be seen as a bullish result for the Pound, whereas a lower score, which shows contraction, could have a negative effect on GBP quotes. This all leads to next week’s BoE’s interest rate decision, news on this may affect the Pound this week as well.
EUR
The Euro had started to drop off at the back end of last week, this is due to the GDP figures that were released, it shows only a 0.1% growth in the economy, lower than the expected result. We also had the inflation data from Germany released last week, this shows a fall in inflation levels, this added to the already falling Euro as we have the ECB’s monetary policy being released this week, as we’ve seen inflation levels fall, a hike of 25 bps to 3.25% is what is expected, if we see a result of a bigger rate hike, then this could positively affect the euro, whereas if they on a smaller hike or not raising the interest rate at all, then this could be bearish result for the Euro. Before the interest rate decision, we do have the HICP data for the whole of the Eurozone being released as well, this will give us the best idea of what direction the ECB will take with their interest rate decision. We also have retail sales figures at the back end of the week, if we see a drop then this could have a negative effect on Euro quotes, whereas an increase could have a positive effect on the Euro.
USD
Last week we had the Durable Goods Order released, this showed a big increase in the result, although this had boosted the USD at the start of the week, the GDP figures dropped the dollar back down, even though a drop was expected it dropped a further 0.9%. This week we have the Fed interest rate decision, a hike of 25 bps is expected, if we see a hike higher than this, then this could be seen as a bullish result for the Dollar, whereas if we see a smaller hike then this could have a negative effect on USD quotes this week. At the backend of the week, we have nonfarm payrolls data being released as well, if we see a rise in these results then this could have a positive effect on the Dollar, whereas if we see a drop as expected, then this could be seen as a bearish result for the USD.
No comments yet