India, Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines are set to enter, the UK is set to fall and Italy is on its way out, or so suggests the latest WELT report projecting the economic league table for the next few decades.
China will become the world’s largest economy in 2029, and not in 2025, or so suggests the World Economic League Table produced by CEBR and published over the Christmas period.
The point when China moves into top slot has been delayed by the recent slowdown in growth in its GDP and currency weakness, but on the other hand, any impact on the US economy resulting from President-elect Trump’s infrastructure plan will not be felt until 2018 or even 2019.
But the predictions that most stand out relate to India, Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines. As for the UK, the next two decades will see its position on the league table fall.
India is projected to overtake the UK and France in 2018, Germany in 2021, and Japan in 2024 to become the world’s third largest economy. It is also slowly closing the gap on China, and is expected to become the world’s largest economy during the second half of this century.
Korea is projected to overtake both the UK and France by 2030, to become the world’s seventh largest economy by 2030, and enter the top five during the 2030s.
Indonesia is expected to enter the top ten by 2030 and the Philippines is projected to enter the top 20 by that date.
As for the UK, it fell back to sixth spot behind France in 2016 – thanks to currency decline, but is expected to re-overtake France before 2021. However, by 2030 it is predicted to be the world’s eighth largest economy, with Brazil and Korea both projected to become larger by that date.
Italy is expected to fall sharply down the economic league, dropping out of the top ten before 2030, and may eventually lose its position in the top 20.
Russia is not forecast to perform well, dropping to 14th place by 2030.
Looking further down the league table, the United Arab Emirates is forecast to rise from 31st to 23rd slot by 2030, Iran from 28th to 21st, and Bangladesh from 46th to 33rd spot. By 2030, Belarus, Sri Lanka, Kenya and Ethiopia are expected to enter the top 60 world economies for the first time in the modern era.
And if you want to take a look down under, then Australia is forecast to climb from 14th to 12th spot by 2023.
CEBR said that “the world’s fastest growing region over the next 15 years is likely to be Central Asia. Its share of the global economy is forecast to have more than tripled since the start of the new millennium, from 2.8 per cent in 2000 to 9.9 per cent in 2030. The world’s slowest-growing region is likely to be Western Europe, with its share of the global economy falling by 42 per cent over the same period. “