q32016growth

We don’t have data on all EU countries yet, but so far there is no indication of any country suffering from recession.

But what about the rest of this year?

The latest flash purchasing managers Index tracking the Eurozone jumped to an 11 month high. The index is far from foolproof, but it’s probably the best guide to what happened in November that we have so far.

But this time, Germany saw a good one – actually, the purchasing managers' index for Germany fell to a two-month low, it is just that the index has been performing well of late, and the reading was still good by recent history. Other indicators that provide a hint on things to come are looking good, or at least good ish. The German ifo Business Climate Indicator has stood at 110.4 for two months, looking at past data on how the index has corresponded with growth in the period to follow, this suggests that quarterly growth in Germany should rise to around 0.5% in Q4.

So far then, an okay picture is emerging – it’s a story of an economy struggling along, but frankly, given the awful performance for much of this decade, we should be doing much better by now.

Capital Economics reckons that the German economy will slow next year, as inflation rises eating into real earnings growth while political instability in Europe – with elections in Holland, France and Germany due, and quite possibly in Italy too.