By Michael Baxter, Fresh Business Thinking

The number of deaths from Covid-19 has fallen sharply in the last two days as the UK government says that “we are taking unprecedented action to increase the NHS’s capacity.”

Two days isn’t long enough to tell for sure, but it does appear that the number of deaths from Covid-19 in the UK may no longer be increasing, or failing that the rate at which they are increasing is slowing  The number of deaths has now fallen for two days in a row, falling from 708 on April 4th to 621 the day after and 403 on April 6.

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It is dangerous to read too much into data encompassing a few days, and in any case, less deaths tend to be reported at weekends. The death rate also fell for two days in a row this day last week.

On the other hand, if we look at the moving three-day average, focusing on deaths over the last three days, we get a better idea of the underlying trend. The latest three-day moving average has fallen sharply. The only other occasion the three-day moving average fell was on March 25th, when the numbers were much lower.

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What is clear is that the terrifying exponential trajectory, which at one point saw the number of deaths double every four or five days is either broken or at least close to being broken. The UK death rate as measured today, took nine days to double.

Let’s hope that tomorrow’s data supports this trend.

Speaking at today’s press briefing today, Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary said that in the UK 208,837 people have been tested for the virus so far, 51,608 have tested positive, 17,911 have been admitted to hospital with Coronavirus symptoms and 5,373 have sadly died.

He emphasised that people must stay at home and said that the reason why Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital was as a precautionary measure and he is in good spirits.

Mr Raab added that the foreign office “is deploying the international network right around the world to source and buy ventilators and protective equipment,” to support the NHS.

He added that for travellers still stuck aboard the UK is doing all it can and if necessary, will charter aircraft.

Professor Angela McClean, the deputy chief scientific officer said that national rail usage is now 20 per cent below the level from February.

She said that it is too soon to see the effects of the big changes we made a few weeks ago.

Worldwide, there have now been 1.291,313, reported cases and tragically 70,659 deaths. 272,426 cases have been reported as now recovered.

The number of total deaths worldwide has doubled since March 29.

The most recent data suggests the highest number of deaths so far has been in Italy (15.587), then Spain (13,1699) followed by the US (9,689), France (8,0_78), followed by the UK.

 

 

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