The National Institute of Economics and Social Research (NIESR) has claimed that predicted fall in migration from the EU to the UK will hit the economy hard, but that lower paid workers will be mildly better off.
If you were to merge the words of Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, with the words of both Jonathan Portes and Giuseppe Forte at NIESR, you would have just about put your finger on it.
To remind you, Mr Carney has said that UK plc benefits from international trade, but some people become worse off. A way needs to be found to take some of the profits from trade to support the losers from it.
Now apply that conclusion to the latest report from NIESR, but transpose the word trade for immigration.
The report from NIESR, penned by Messrs Portes and Forte, has found that EU migration to the UK could fall by around 91,000 by 2020, leading to GDP being 0.6% to 1.2% less than it would have been and with a GDP per capita reduction of 0.2 to 0.8%.
NIESR also suggested that over the period to 2030 – the period covered by the analyses published by HM Treasury, the OECD, and NIESR – the hit to GDP per capita could be up to 3.4%.
“By contrast,” it said “the increase in low-skilled wages resulting from reduced migration is expected to be relatively modest.”
NIESR, which has always taken an anti Brexit slant, also warned that a fall in trade caused by Brexit would hit GDP by a similar amount.
Jonathan Portes said: “Prior to the referendum, a number of analyses estimated the long-term impacts of Brexit on the UK economy; but none incorporated the impacts of Brexit-induced reductions in migration. Our estimates suggest that the negative impacts on per capita GDP will be significant, potentially approaching those resulting from reduced trade.”