The UK economy is likely to continue growing in 2016 and 2017 at a similar to 2015, but the risks facing the economy are growing, according to Warwick Business School.
The Business School's economic forecasting system shows that there is now a 10% chance of economic growth being less than 1% in 2016, up from 6% three months ago. And there is a 45% chance of growth falling under 2%, up from 28%.
The risks to inflation in 2016 and 2017 continue to be on the downside, with close to 90% chance that inflation is less than 1% in 2016. The probability of inflation greater than 3% is forecast to be essentially zero in 2016, rising to a modest 5% in 2017.
Professor James Mitchell, of the economic modelling and forecasting group at Warwick Business School, said: “These elevated downside risks to economic growth in 2016 are consistent with the OECD recently revising down by 0.3 percentage points their point forecasts for UK growth in 2016. The WBSFS is, however, not expecting this asymmetry in the balance of risks to continue into 2017. The upside and downside risks to growth in the UK are more evenly matched as we look ahead to 2017.”