year2030

The IPPR has produced a report looking at what factors will shape the UK in the year 2030. It says understanding the changes that are afoot are vital in Brexit negotiations.

Forecast change number one: the number of people aged 65 plus will grow by 33 per cent.

Forecast change number two: the rise of the Global South – half of all large companies are predicted to be based in emerging markets.

Ageing will mean that a structural deficit will emerge, with the social care funding gap forecast to hit £13 billion.

Two-thirds of existing jobs are at risk of automation.

The income of high-income households is forecast to rise 11 times faster than for lower income households.

Climate change and other factors will mean that the economy will run up against the physical capital limit of the Earths’ natural resources.

The UK will boast the richest region in Europe, but also nine out ten of the poorest regions.

Mathew Lawrence, IPPR research fellow and report author said: “By 2030, the effects of Brexit combined with a wave of economic, social and technological change will reshape the UK, in often quite radical ways.

“In the face of this, a politics of nostalgia, institutional conservatism and a rear guard defence of the institutions of 20th century social democracy will be inadequate. For progressives, such a strategy will not be robust enough to mitigate against growing insecurity, ambitious enough to reform Britain’s economic model, nor sufficiently innovative to deliver deeper social and political transformation. They would be left defending sand castles against the tide of history.

“Britain’s progressives should be ambitious, seeking to shape the direction of technological and social change. We must build a ‘high energy’ democracy that accelerates meaningful democratic experimentation at a national, city and local level, and also in the marketplace by increasing everyone’s say over corporate governance, ownership and power.”