What Might A Recession Mean For Green Business?

By John Grant

It could be a blessing in disguise. Out may go green luxuries, some of the more extravagant corporate commitments, some of the investor confidence. In may come green economies, smaller cars used less, fewer flights and luxuries, less strain on the planet. If you look at the oil crisis in the 1970s, this was the invitation to small Japanese cars vs the American gas-guzzlers. Of course depending on the depth of recession it could bring suffering in ordinary families and communities, and it could hold back development in poor regions - definitely...

...a mixed blessing. But perhaps less so than the global Somalia predicted if we carry on as we are and the climate does drift into the red part of the gauge.

So far so eco-political, but what are the practical implications?

I have been around long enough to have worked through three big downturns, and (with the exception of the dotcom bust) was lucky enough to be working in little companies that were actually growing at these times. Macro trends are large-scale averages. And a downturn can be a great time to change direction. Many web 2.0 stars like lastFM were developed by software coders who were at a bit of a loose end five years ago.

If you are a green business, or a business with green plans, the key shift we might see is from spending green to saving green. This could affect what mix of products and services work best. And it would definitely affect the key selling points. What this means exactly for your business is a matter to discover through scenario planning. I reckon there is sufficient chance (many say 50:50) of a big recession next year for any business to sit... continued on page two >

 

 

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