techs_marketcap

The latest results from Apple, Alphabet/Google, Amazon, Facebook and Alibaba are in. Who will win the race to $1 trillion, who will win the race to $2 trillion? 

Let’s cut to it, here are the latest results from the four companies in the latest quarter, revealed this week:

 

revenue, in $billion growth in per cent profits in $billion growth in profits in per cent market cap in $billion

 

Apple 83.3 13 20.1 12 861
Alphabet 32.3 24 6.8* 27* 815
Amazon 60.5 38 1.9 153 669
Facebook 12.7 48 4.3 61 561
Alibaba 13 56 3.7 36 492
  • This excludes a $9.9 billion one-off tax charge Alphabet incurred to take advantage of changes in US rates for profits.

 

Or see it as pictures, note as above, Alphabet figures on profits exclude the one-off.

Note that Alphabet incurred a one-off tax charge of $9.9 billion, and profits and growth in profits exclude this figure.  

 

techs_growth

techs_marketcap

If growth in shares followed the trajectory in growth in profits, and continued at the same rate then:

Apple would see its market cap pass $1 trillion in 2019, and $2 trillion in 2026.

Alphabet would see its market cap pass $1 trillion in 2019, and $2 trillion in 2022.

Amazon would see its market cap pass $1 trillion in 2019, and $2 trillion in 2020.

Facebook would see its market cap pass $1 trillion in 2020, and $2 trillion in 2021.

Alibaba would see its market cap pass $1 trillion in 2021, and $2 trillion in 2023.

It won’t work like that, of course. For one thing, in most cases, growth in profits will surely slow, although the Apple growth rate may continue for a while.  For another thing, market cap is as much a function of expected profits as actual profits, and there is an awful lot of hope built into some of the share valuations.

Race to a trillion and two trillion dollars 

If profits carried on growing at the rate we have seen over the last year, and assuming a market cap of say 44 times quarterly profits, which is the ratio that currently applies to Apple, a market cap of $1 trillion and $2 trillion would be reached for each of the five techs, according to this timetable:

One trillion dollars Two trillion dollars
Apple 2020 2026
Alphabet/Google 2024 2026
Amazon 2021 2024
Facebook 2022 2023
Alibaba 2024 2027

Of course, the valuation of each company to profits would change this, at the moment the so-called PE ratio, which measures profits to earnings, is much lower at Apple, and massive for Amazon. The above table just assumes all five techs see PEs converge with the current Apple PE, and assumes that the latest growth rate continues.

Note also, Aramco, when it is floated, may reach both targets first.